13 Aug 2015 | Tools | Contributor(s): Roberto Tonini, Laura Sandri, dmitri rouwet
Compute and visualize short- and long-term volcanic hazard associated to magmatic and non-magmatic unrest using a Bayesian Event Tree model
Towards a probabilistic scheme: How can we recognize and track non-magmatic unrest and related hazards?
18 Feb 2014 | Publications | Contributor(s): dmitri rouwet, Laura Sandri, Warner Marzocchi, Jo Gottsmann
Eruption forecasting is a major goal in volcanology. The intrinsic complexity and non-linearity of volcanic systems has recently led to an intertwining of deterministic to probabilistic eruption forecasting methods. However, many volcanoes often pass states of non-eruptive and non-magmatic unrest...
A probabilistic framework to quantify hazard related to volcanic lakes
23 Aug 2013 | Presentations | Contributor(s): dmitri rouwet, Laura Sandri, raul mora-amador
The presence of a volcanic lake increases the probability of certain types of volcanic hazard. So far, this topic has only been approached in a purely deterministic way, e.g.: phreatic-phreatomagmatic eruption behavior, dynamics of Nyos-type gas bursts and gas accumulation and dispersion, models...
BET_VH presentation at VHUB workshop, 25th July 2013, Kagoshima, Japan
30 Jul 2013 | Workshops | Contributor(s): Roberto Tonini, Laura Sandri
This is the material used to introduce the BET_VH online tool and to carry out a step-by-step exercise for setting and performing a full Probalistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA). The tool and the exercise have been presented during the vhub workshop held the 25th July 2013 in Kagoshima,...
Expert Elicitation during the Colima Exercise in Nov. 2012: the VUELCO people
26 Apr 2013 | Miscellaneous | Contributor(s): Laura Sandri
In this short document, I describe the elicitation process and results obtained during the exercise Colima (November 2012) carried out by VUELCO staff.