By Alvaro Aravena1, Raffaello Cioni1

1. Università di Firenze

Probability map of PDC by using a modifed approach of the energy cone model and topographic information derived from the SRTM 30 m elevation model.

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Version 1.00 - published on 18 Jul 2019

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ECMapProb is a tool designed to construct frequency-based probability maps for the occurrence of pyroclastic density currents (PD s), using a modified version of the energy cone model and SRTM 30 m elevation data. The energy cone is a simple and widely employed method for assessing volcanic hazards, and represents a reference model in the evaluation of the results associated to more sophisticated tools. Since the energy cone model is unable to consider channelization processes, here we adopt a novel, modified approach that construct a family of energy cones in a tree structure, with different positions and vertex heights as a function of the expected channelization of the pyroclastic material. The strength of ECMapProb lies on the ease and speed of use (e.g., it does not require the topographic data as an input file), the consideration of channelization processes, the presence of uncertainty parameters for setting the often poorly-constrained characteristics of PDCs (i.e., dissipation rate of energy, collapse height and vent position), the inclusion of structurally-controlled probability functions for modelling the collapse position (punctual, linear and radial geometries) and the automatic construction of probability maps. Thereby, ECMapProb represents a useful tool to the early assessment of volcanic hazards in poorly documented volcanoes, the comparison with other numerical models, the analysis of the relative importance of the input variables and for didactic goals.

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Researchers should cite this work as follows:

  • Alvaro Aravena; Raffaello Cioni (2019), "ECMapProb,"

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