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Tephra inversion with Tephra2 and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm
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21 Jun 2020 | Contributor(s):: Qingyuan Yang, E Bruce Pitman, Marcus I Bursik, Susanna Jenkins
We couple the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm (Hastings, 1970) with the volcanic ash transport model Tephra2 (Bonadonna et al, 2005; 2010), and present the coupled algorithm as a new method to estimate the Eruption Source Parameters (ESPs) of volcanic eruptions based on mass per unit area...
Supplementary material for Newhall and Pallister (2014) Using multiple data sets to populate probabilistic volcanic event trees
24 Nov 2014 | Contributor(s):: Chris Newhall, John S Pallister
For probabilistic forecasting in volcanology, two widely used methods are the Cooke method (Aspinall and others) and BET-EF (Marzocchi and others). The paper noted in the title, in Papale P (ed), Volcanic Hazards, Risks and Disasters. Academic Press, describes...
Cost/benefit Analysis: Guidelines for quantitative protocols for volcanic risk reduction
24 Aug 2015 | Contributor(s):: dmitri rouwet
The goal of this deliverable is to provide guidelines that may allow scientists and decision makers tobridge the gap between volcanological knowledge and a rational decision making. Part of thecontent of this document has been published on the paper W. Marzocchi, C.G. Newhall, G. Woo(2012). The...