Tags: probabilistic methods

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  1. Tephra inversion with Tephra2 and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm

    21 Jun 2020 | Contributor(s):: Qingyuan Yang, E Bruce Pitman, Marcus I Bursik, Susanna Jenkins

    We couple the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm (Hastings, 1970) with the volcanic ash transport model Tephra2 (Bonadonna et al, 2005; 2010), and present the coupled algorithm as a new method to estimate the Eruption Source Parameters (ESPs) of volcanic eruptions based on mass per unit area...

  2. Supplementary material for Newhall and Pallister (2014) Using multiple data sets to populate probabilistic volcanic event trees

    24 Nov 2014 | Contributor(s):: Chris Newhall, John S Pallister

    For probabilistic forecasting in volcanology, two widely used methods are the Cooke method (Aspinall and others) and BET-EF (Marzocchi and others).   The paper noted in the title, in Papale P (ed), Volcanic Hazards, Risks and Disasters. Academic Press, describes...

  3. Cost/benefit Analysis: Guidelines for quantitative protocols for volcanic risk reduction

    24 Aug 2015 | Contributor(s):: dmitri rouwet

    The goal of this deliverable is to provide guidelines that may allow scientists and decision makers tobridge the gap between volcanological knowledge and a rational decision making. Part of thecontent of this document has been published on the paper W. Marzocchi, C.G. Newhall, G. Woo(2012). The...