Coupling Uncertain Geophysical Hazards Workshop
March 24-26, 2019
James B. Hunt Library, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
Description: Scientists are beginning to understand the propagation of uncertainty through mathematical models, to enable predictions of the likely outputs given the uncertainty of inputs. More challenging is the propagation of uncertainty through coupled models. Outputs of the first model are usually not directly related to the inputs of the second model — so how does one effect the coupling? How do the assumptions and uncertainties of the first model propagate through to outputs of the second? Although coupling has been recognized as an important issue in quantifying uncertainty, the analysis of coupled models has only very recently been the subject of mathematical and statistical study. Earth scientists, applied and computational mathematicians, and statisticians are invited to meet to examine modeling of coupled hazards, to identify the primary challenges in making predictions, and to devise effective strategies to advance methodologies for tackling these complex problems. There will be an examination of the physics of the dominate geophysical process such as mudslides, landslides, avalanches, volcanic mass flow events and airborne ash clouds, and their attendant uncertainties. Researchers will examine and apply new statistical methodologies that show promise for the efficient coupling of hazards.
** Deadline for applications is February 5, 2019 **
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